Morning Coffee (110)

Weekend Coffee is as good as any Coffee, don’t you agree? There’s so much to talk about. So, shall we begin?

Gone, Baby, Gone:

This coming Wednesday, the day after voting in several so-called big states, it’s very likely that Hillary Clinton will no longer be a candidate for the Democratic nomination. Thus, our choices for President of the United States will have been whittled down to two from what seemed like hundreds just five months ago. The grind is, well, grinding down.

But it’s not over. Obama is spending plenty of his massive treasure chest with the intent of eliminating Clinton on Tuesday. According to the New York Times, he has outspent Clinton two to one in television advertising in two states. This massive spending, which he can easily afford considering he raised $50 million in February (versus Clinton’s $35 million), has helped him virtually erase the two-digit lead Clinton held in the polls a few weeks ago.

The money advantage cannot be discounted, as unfortunate as that may be. Obama is able to fly hundreds of paid organizers to wherever they’re needed. He can dominate the airwaves with his message. I’ve heard his radio ads dozens of times on one radio station. I have never heard a Clinton ad on that or any other station. I have seen one Clinton ad on TV, whereas I’ve seen at least five for Obama. Admittedly, I do not watch much TV, so I’m sure the saturation is higher. Obama is going to spend Clinton into the ground. Already, his operation has expanded into states that will hold Primaries after Tuesday. Clinton is unable to do this. She simply hasn’t the funds.

It gets worse for Clinton. While she rolls out former Democratic Representative Dick Gephardt as a supporter, Obama ups the ante and has the indie band Arcade Fire perform for him. I have news for her. Young voters do not identify with a former Congressman that most of them haven’t even heard of.

It is possible that Clinton will pull off a few wins (some call this a miracle) on Tuesday, but this would serve merely to prolong the inevitable. She may not be as mathematically eliminated as Mike Huckabee (who?), but she is most certainly philosophically eliminated. As Clinton herself knows, Hope trumps Reality; as it did for her husband, it does for Barack Obama.

So the voters will believe in a change as much as something like change can be believed in, and Obama will secure the nomination, eventually. And here’s where our system gets less interesting. Two candidates will duke it out. The policies of each will become less radical as they try to garner votes and approval from voters in the other party. While there will be plenty of fire and brimstone during debates and the like while each candidate tries to stand out, the whole affair will really be sort of watered down.

Actually scratch that. Some aspects will be vaguely interesting. For example, what will happen with McCain’s finances? McCain made some tactical decisions about money earlier in this election cycle, and it might bite him, what with various rules and such. I am not going to go into specifics at present, as there will be ample time to discuss it, but what is interesting is that the FEC doesn’t have enough members for a quorum. Thus the FEC can’t make a decision. This will not change either. Appointees to the FEC have to be confirmed by the Senate, which is presently in Democrat hands. It’s not going to happen. In this, McCain’s campaign could face considerable financial difficulties, which, if things go a certain way, Obama will not have to deal with.

Ladies and Gentlemen, allow me to introduce the 44^th President of the United States, Barack Obama! Enjoy it America. You wanted it; you’ve got it.

Russian Politics:

Since I can’t seem to bore you enough with American politics, I’ll regale you with tales of intrigue from Russia. Arguably, Russian politics are more interesting than those in America, if decidedly more predictable. You might wonder why. It’s simple: the filth of Russian politics makes American politics look as though the Bald Head of Mr. Clean rules over the Election Cycle with an Iron Mop.

Let me put it to you this way. Russia’s Presidential election is today. Russia’s next President was decided in December. Does that make sense? Dmitry Medvedev, Former Chief of Staff for Vladimir Putin, former First Deputy Prime Minister, and current Vice Premier or Russia (and Chairman of Russian petro-giant Gazprom’s board) was unofficially endorsed by Putin on 10 December, and officially endorsed on 17 December 2007. Polls indicate that 79% of Russians will vote for Medvedev. Not bad for a man who has never held elected office. Putin spoke, and Russians will listen. The American media must be green with envy over that sort of influence.

How fun are elections in Russia? Your boss will tell you who to vote for. If you don’t vote, you’ll lose your job. He’ll even accompany you to the polls to make sure you cast your ballot in a responsible manner. Four hundred and fifty-thousand troops and police were deployed to make sure voting took place in a calm manner. Surely, they will not serve as an unconscious reminder to wayward voters.

Ladies and Gentlemen, I give you the next President of the Russian Federation, Dmitry Medvedev! We at the Morning Coffee apologize to Russians everywhere for that little Constitutional prohibition that forbade Putin from seeking another term, but he’ll likely be your Prime Minister, so worry not for Comrade, er, Mr. Putin.

What is almost scarier than Russian politics, however, is the American media’s lack of coverage of those politics. Considering it is Russia (and really cold and dreary) and that there are almost no foreign observers watching the election, that’s not surprising. But let’s remember, this is not an insignificant country in Africa. This is Russia, a nation in possession of strategic (nuclear) weapons and the ability to deploy those weapons right to your front porch.

The uninformed says, “But Russia’s military is falling apart, we needn’t worry about them.” Five years ago this statement would have been largely true; Russia’s military was sustaining itself by selling equipment to any and everyone. It is hardly the case now. Russia has the largest proven natural gas reserves and the eighth largest proven oil reserves. Russia is rich. And that money is being spent on its military again. Russian BEAR bombers are regularly patrolling the skies near the US and its allies, even flying a mere 2,000 feet directly above a US aircraft carrier. The Russian military is making a comeback, and will only continue to flex its muscles. I contest that this is a good thing, as it provides a potential counterbalance to the growing Chinese might. But it also means that the US needs to treat Russia as if it belongs at the Big-Boy-Table. The US has been dismissing Russia for a long time now, and Russians resent it. This cannot continue. Criticize the lack of transparency (or in this case abundant transparency) in elections all you want, but believing Russia is as inept as it was in 1996 is a mistake.

Competition Bad, Cronyism Good:

For the past few years, the need of a new aerial refueling platform to replace the current, outdated KC-135s has dominated discussion in the US Air Force. A version of Boeing’s 767 was supposed to replace the KC-135, but Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld cancelled the KC-767 program in January 2006 following the revelation of corruption in how the contract was awarded. The following year, the Air Force announced the KC-X program, which pitted Boeing against the Northrop Grumman/EADS group. Both competitors offered a refueler based on an existing platform.

Stunningly, Northrop Grumman/EADS won the contract, which would produce the newly named KC-45. This has set off a storm of anger in Washington. See, NG/EADS is partly European, EADS being the European Aeronautic Defense and Space Company, part of a conglomerate that builds the Airbus A-380, and a number of military aircraft. And the KC-45, which is built upon the A-330 platform, would benefit the French. We all know how well like the French are in Republican Land.

Senator Sam Brownback (R-KS) said, “I’ll be calling upon the Secretary of Defense for a full debriefing and expect there will be a protest of the award by Boeing.” Senator Todd Tiahrt (R-SD) said, “We should have an American tanker built by an American company with American workers. I cannot believe we would create French jobs in place of Kansas jobs."

Brownback and Tiahrt should be educated about the merits of competition, that being that it’s a pretty good thing. See, by all accounts, the A-330 platform makes for a better KC-45 than does the 767 presented by Boeing, being able to hold a great deal more fuel, cargo, and men, should that be needed. I don’t see the problem with this. The US Air Force is getting a superior product. Apologies to Boeing, but maybe next time they’ll do better and not have to whine about fair competition.

A bane to Tiahrt’s argument, Airbus has already stated that the company would assemble the tankers in Alabama, and promised to transfer the assembly of the A-330 there as well. That does this thing called, “Create American Jobs.” What’s worse is that not only has this vow been made, but Northrop Grumman/EADS is contractually obligated to build a $600 million assembly plant in the US, likely in Mobile, AL. Thus, we put to death Tiahrt’s complaint. The heart of the matter is that he’s from Kansas, and Boeing would have built the 767-based tanker in Kansas. Oh, I almost forgot to mention that he used to work for Boeing drawing up government contracts. Go figure.

Word of the Day: Garrulous (adjective): 1. Talking much, especially about commonplace or trivial things; talkative. 2. Wordy. Garrulous was the Senator from Kansas, as he bloviated needlessly about the loss of American jobs.

On This Day in History: Since I missed yesterday, indulge me…

01 March: The Continental Congress adopts the Articles of Confederation (1781). The first US Census is authorized (1790). Napoleon returns to France from banishment on Elba (1815). President Tyler signs a bill authorizing the US annexation of the Republic of Texas (1845). The Ethiopian army defeats an outnumbered Italian force in the Battle of Adowa, and Caesar rolls over in his grave (1896). Henri Becquerel discovers radioactivity (1896). Josef Stalin suffers a stroke, dying four days later (1953). Puerto Rican nationalists attack the US Capitol Building, injuring five Representatives (1954). A bomb, planted by the Weather Underground, explodes in a bathroom in the US Capitol Building (1971).

See last year’s Morning Coffee (64) for all the cool Roman happenings on this date.

02 March: Tsar Alexander II emancipates the Russian serfs (1861). His generosity is thanked by assassins in 1881. Note to self: Do not emancipate anyone; it bodes poorly for the emancipator (see Lincoln). Tsar Nicholas II abdicates in favor of his brother (1917). Nicholas and his little tribe are also killed. Michael is smart and defers acceptance of the throne, but is murdered in 1918. The first Communist International meeting (1919).

“The health of a democratic society may be measured by the quality of functions performed by private citizens.”

“The surface of American society is covered with a layer of democratic paint, but from time to time one can see the old aristocratic colours breaking through.”

- Alexis de Tocqueville.