08 May 2008

Morning Coffee (125)

Four days. Four Morning Coffee’s. Imagine the fury; the hard-hitting commentary. If you can imagine it, it can happen. Because it did. Maybe you didn’t even notice. Maybe that hard-hitting commentary forced you into a Coffee-induced black out. Maybe your mind was so utterly blown by the impressive content that you were unable to remember one day from the next. Luckily, I number these things for you, so when you become overwhelmed, you can easily go back and relive the glory. Or ignore the glory. The choice is yours. Here at the Morning Coffee, we believe in empowering our readers; posing serious moral dilemmas and stuff.

Myanmar Cyclone:

Those of you in a Coffee-induced coma might not be aware that there has been a major natural disaster in the far off land of Burma, also known as Myanmar. Many of you might not be able to find it on a map, but you surely know of it now. Regarding names, Burma’s name was changed to Myanmar by its military leadership (no democracy) in 1989. The US and others have not recognized this change, so I will refer to it as Burma despite the media’s use of Myanmar. Moving on.

A cyclone by the name of Nargis hit Burma on 03 May. Initial reports on the fourth suggested that 10,000 people had been killed. Within 12 hours, that number went up to 40,000, with 70,000 missing. By the next day, the numbers kept getting higher and higher throughout the course of the news day. Eventually, the estimate reached 100,000 dead and 70,000 missing. This estimate was made by a US official stationed in Burma. I’ve also read somewhere that 65% of Burma’s rice farming industry had been eradicated by this storm as well. I’m not sure what, if any, impact this would have on rice prices worldwide.

The Burmese government, a military regime, hasn’t been too keen on letting in aid workers, refusing visas to most of them. They’re willing to accept aid, just not the people who would administer that aid. The regime hasn’t been too welcoming of much of anything for quite some time now. Not too long ago, a bunch of Buddhist monks got a bit angry at the whole regime thing and protested. They were no match for the military. Unarmed men in orange robes usually don’t stand much of a chance against soldiers. Numerous nations condemned the actions of the regime, but Burma’s neighbors (China) refused to do so as well. Money’s money. That should give you an idea of the reasons why the Burmese government doesn’t accept aid. Oh, I forgot to mention that several generals proclaimed that bird flu would never reach Burma because infected birds wouldn’t fly over the mountains. We’ll call him General da Vinci.

While the estimate made by the US official may very well prove correct, which would might mean a death toll in the neighborhood of 150,000 once the missing are accounted for, I really wonder about the veracity of such an estimate by such a person. Since he’s a US official, and the US has placed pressure on the government in Burma before, this number could be rather arbitrary. I’m not sure how one goes about estimating casualties in a major disaster, or what sort of training you might need for such a job. The Burmese want the number lower, and have reported rather low numbers, so it’s possible that the US has inflated the numbers to put pressure on the Burmese to allow aid workers to come in and help. It doesn’t really matter; I just wonder how the guy gets his numbers. He came out with 100,000 before anyone else did. Even 10,000 is a huge number compared to storms that hit the US, so 100,000 would be hard to fathom.

Natural Disaster 101:

But 100,000 isn’t unimaginable or even unrealistic. Wikipedia’s list of worst natural disasters lists several events that are far worse than the highest estimates associated with Cyclone Nargis. In 1931, China’s Yellow River flooded, killing 2.5-3.7 million people. This is the same river that flooded in 1887, killing 900,000 to 2,000,000 million. Guess they didn’t learn their lesson the first time. In less than 50 years, flooding on the Yellow River may have killed 5.7 million people. Nargis isn’t even the deadliest cyclone. In 1970, Cyclone Bhola killed a half a million in Bangladesh. In 1839, a cyclone in India killed 300,000.

The earth needn’t be left out. An earthquake devastated the city of Antioch in 526 in modern day Syria. It killed 250,000 people. The 1976 Tangshan earthquake in China killed 242,000. This is the official figure. Estimates place the death toll of this quake to be as high as 655,000. Cheaply constructed buildings near the epicenter of earthquakes equals bad news for your peasants. This isn’t even the worst quake in China. In 1556, 830,000 died in one quake.

What about volcanos? If you’re afraid of being killed by volcanic debris, don’t live in Indonesia. Five of the top 11 volcanic disasters have been located there. In 1851, 71,000+ were killed by Mount Tambora, which is less than the famous Krakatoa (1883 – 36,000). In 1783, the volcano Laki killed about 25% of the population of Iceland (9,350). Interestingly, 70 years prior, 1/3 of the population was killed by smallpox too. But that’s not the grand-daddy of volcanoes. The supervolcano at Lake Toba (also in Indonesia) erupted about 74,000 years ago, and may have been responsible for the deaths of 99% of the global human population, reducing a population of 60 million to less than 10,000. Since this volcano killed about 59,990,000 people, I think it takes the cake. Toba may have also been the largest explosive volcanic eruption in the last 25 million years. How about six inches worth of ash over the entire subcontinent of India? Six hundred seventy cubic miles of ejecta? Toba’s got it all.

I feel like I’m hosting a show on Discovery, but I’m fascinated with our planet’s power to cry havoc and let slip the dogs of destruction. And it’s my damn newsletter.

Word of the Day: Moiety (MOY-uh-tee) (noun): 1. One of two equal parts; a half. 2. An indefinite part; a small portion or share. 3. One of two basic tribal subdivisions.

On This Day in History: Ghandi begins his 21-day fast in protest of British oppression in India (1933). V-E Day (1945).

“Grunt, grunt, grabba grunt grunt.” (Translation: “Uh, it sure is getting dark out…”) – Said by primitive man to his woman-friend approximately 74,000 years ago, right before they became very hungry.

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